On Homes: Economists Vs. Builders

Some economists expect that home-construction activity will bottom out by the end of 2008 and start picking up next year. But that target increasingly seems elusive, as the spring home-selling season nears another dismal end. Investors shouldn't expect solace in Friday's Commerce Department report on housing starts.

The up-close view of Robert Toll, chief executive of the luxury builder Toll Brothers, is telling. In its latest quarter, Toll's buyers signed 929 contracts for new homes in Toll's 300 communities across the nation. That means, on average, Toll sold one home per month at each community. At the peak, in the ...