The White House has had a tough time with the souring economic data in recent months. President Bush and his advisers have steadfastly avoided using the “R” word to describe the slowdown, even though many Wall Street economists have already made the recession pronouncement. Today, Mr. Bush and his spokesman used April’s payroll decline — which wasn’t as bad as projected — to fire a few shots back.

[Bush]

At a speech in Missouri today, the president explained that the economic stimulus package passed in February but is only now starting to kick in. “The point I’m trying to tell you is, is that we worked well with Congress and that the effects of a robust attempt to inject life hasn’t really kicked in yet. And I’m — if you believe these economists, if they had three hands they’d say, on the one hand, on the other hand, and then on the third hand. [Laughter.] But we’ve got some smart folks around that are analyzing what this means, and they feel confident about it.”

At a press briefing aboard Air Force One, White House spokesman Tony Fratto went through the usual dance with reporters about recession terminology. He said, “Very little of the data … are approaching anything consistent with recessionary data.”

“Obviously, growth is growing, so that is not consistent with the recession,” Mr. Fratto said. Retail sales figures “are probably the weakest … but all the other economic data that we’re seeing are stronger than what you would see consistent with past recessions.”

After being told that analysts were expecting a decline of 75,000 jobs in April, he responded: “Yes, you know, we don’t put a whole lot of stock in private forecasting on these numbers. The numbers are so volatile, you know, no one should pay too much attention to what the private forecasts say.” – Sudeep Reddy